If Russia Wins

 This is a 2028 scenario book written by Carlo Masala, which I read for my day job writing a defence analysis for a European think tank. However, it is also a credible scenario for modern warfare and wargamers.

The book is set in March 2028. It assumes that the USA has sold out Ukraine and forced it into a land-for-peace deal with Russia. Zelensky loses the subsequent election, Ukraine descends into chaos, and Putin stands down as Russian president. The West is trying to work out if this signals a new direction in Russian foreign policy, or another Putin puppet.

In Brussels, NATO is split, with the US focusing on the Pacific and European nations unwilling to increase defence expenditure to levels required to seriously deter Russian expansionism. In Moscow, they have learned the lessons from the optimistic 'Special Military Operation' analysis and have adopted the 1936 Rhineland model to target Russian-speaking areas outside the Russian border. In effect, this means just take action, tell everyone your objectives are limited, and rely on a weak reaction.

On this basis, Russian troops capture the Estonian town of Narva and the island of Hiiumaa in the Baltic Sea. Europe’s slow rearmament and its compromised military and intelligence capabilities are now clear for its enemies to exploit. Does Article 5 of NATO apply? What will the alliance decide? Will they risk nuclear war?

The author takes the reader through the various meetings that take place to decide on a reaction. The Russians use hybrid warfare to distract NATO from Estonia. A defence contracor is killed in Germany and bombs go off at Faslane. The Chinese helped by capturing an island in the South China Sea. The bottom line is that the USA is not going to risk WW3 over a small town in Estonia. They are supported by Hungary and other of Putin's useful idiots in Europe. So they effectively do nothing.

If this sounds fanciful, last week the Russian Duma passed a law letting Putin deploy troops anywhere on Earth to 'protect Russian citizens'. The author argues that the only way to prevent this scenario is to ensure Moscow believes NATO will respond to a regional escalation.

This is a short, very readable book with a well-argued scenario. Not a cheery prospect, but one we ought to take seriously.

Some of my modern Russians in 20mm, in a game of Corps Commander.